This was done by applying the, IAD framework and a supporting model connected to the creation of mental mod-. It can also be concluded that epistemology is something, the intelligence community needs to consider since it is an essential part of their. However, the doctrine and hand-, books had not been effectively disseminated, and only 30 to 50% of the respond-, ents admitted they had read them. Chapter 5 includes the main findings from each of, the findings from the articles are discussed as a whole, with a focus on the. In, tems: Current Research and Future Prospects. The interpretation involves an unfortunate combination of semantics, morphology, and mental models. Some of the respondents had a clear, message they wanted to deliver. It was decided, against praxis, to, separate the escort from the convoy and to let the escort return to port while the. Jennifer Sims writes, “Intelligence has made a dramatic difference to, the outcome of battles” (2009, 58). 2013. Goldman. In the next section, these two forms—indirect. Louisiana Law Review Volume 64 | Number 4 Normalization of National Security Law: This is even more true for literature regarding contemporary military, intelligence. Because intelligence is so important to the commander, operational lawyers must understand the basics of intelligence law. 2016. It evaluates the CIA’s strategic intelligence performance during the Cold War and post-Cold War periods as a foundation for examining the root causes of intelligence failures surrounding the September 11th attacks and assessments of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs in the run up to the Iraq War. In short, if the definition of intelligence is, going to be useful in academic circles, it needs to be able to separate intelligence and. The failures of the U.S. intelligence is due to two factors: the common psychological traits which resulted in unmotivated biases in information processing which lead to systematically mistaken estimates in analysis; and the political environment of the intelligence system which has produced the notion that the intelligence product is not merely a means to achieve foreign policy goals but also a political commodity that can be used to advance political and bureaucratic interests. The aim of the multi-method approach is best described as, an attempt to provide a more comprehensive answer to the research question. It is hard to argue that an expert with more than 15 years of experience, who has established his own way of working would do better with a more scientific, method. This bias creates the distinct increase that is close to and, above the anchor value. The mental model of the situation is placed within the boundaries of the produced. Mangio, Charles A, and Bonnie J Wilkinson. feedback as well as the culture and belief systems to which the individuals belong; see figure 7 (2005, 105). Counterintelligence: Adopting a Target-Centric View on Advanced Persistent. ‘Making Analysis Reliable: Why Epistemology Matter to Intelli-, ited by Roger George and James Bruce, 2 edition. research findings to increase their effectiveness in deception, but the benefits (i.e.. the possibility to strengthen assessments) are most likely outweigh the risks and, therefore, justify the research efforts. Construction of a simulation model of the intelligence process requires a number of simplifying assumptions that dictate the level of abstraction of the model from the real world. Collectively, such experiences of proximal intercorporeality “sculpt” the mentalization process and hence the constitution of the minimal self, including the progressive sophistication of mental distinctions between “subject-object,” “self-other” and even “pleasure-pain.” Finally, we explore notions of cardiac and more broadly interoceptive awareness as later, cognitive acquisitions that allow us to progressively solidify such distinctions, as well as understand and empathise with other people. tried to predict whether the classifier would label it correctly. Sev-, eral of the interviewees and survey respondents, when asked how they conducted a, threat analysis, stated that the periodic threat assessments were based on previously, conducted assessment. In other words, research on the functions and activities of military. before, when Tirpitz’ sister ship Bismarck had suffered significant damage and sunk. Avhandlingen avser att bidra till, att överbrygga dessa forskningsgap. The aim of the case study was to examine and identify the mechanisms of, institutional influence on intelligence assessments. The DIKW hierarchy has been criti-. The, aim of intelligence is, as mentioned above, to deliver some form of decision sup-, port; hence, this needs to be disseminated to the decision makers, verbally or in. Further-, more, the Jominian view claims that there is a “right” answer which is in contrast to, Clausewitz, who believes that the “fog of war” will always exist (Agrell and, Treverton 2015, 37). Denzau, Arthur, and Douglass North. Nevertheless, Agrell´s criticism remains, but focuses more on how the framework is, With the exception of Article III, the articles of this thesis describe the intelligence, cycle when it is referred to as a framework aiming to describe the intelligence pro-, cess. One of the main debates in social science over the last decade has been between, methodological individualism and methodological holism. QAnon is military intelligence and close to Trump, and the intelligence we’ve getting, that we’ve explained on Infowars, really is a lot of the inside script. Sabatier wrote that academic analysts “look at the world through a lens, consisting of a set of simplifying presuppositions”(Sabatier 2007a, 5). This connection to an informatics perspective is nothing new. The core of the research question in this, thesis takes this for granted, and to assume that I as a scholar should and could, stand above this would be hypocritical. who had been active in the intelligence section of the staff in Afghanistan. One problem area is in, regard to interviewing. © Richard L. Russell 2007 and Cambridge University Press, 2009. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are con-. ‘Bulding a Theory of Intelligence Systems’. Addressing the threat caused by such antagonists requires a fast and offensive cyber, counterintelligence (CCI) process and an efficient inter-organizational information, exchange. “Intelligence Culture and Intelligence Failure in Britain. become complicated. ‘Improving Intelligence Studies as an Academic Discipline’. No method is epistemological neutral, and interviews are no exception to that rule. As the name indicates, most models in-, clude some form of cyclic pattern. ‘What’s Wrong with the Intelligence Cycle’. to formulate analytical generalizations (2009, 21). The com-, mon denominator here is that all of these factors were part of the intelligence analy-. At the core, intelligence is considered to be some type of product or activity with, the purpose of delivering decision support to civilian leaders or military command-, ers. One way to understand cognitive bias is to see it as a by-, product of limitations in human processing. 1999. The Military Intelligence Corps Association (MICA) is the premier professional association of the U.S. Army’s Military Intelligence Corps, with the mission of preserving history, educating leaders, honoring professionals, sharing knowledge, and providing supporting award programs. Here it starts to. How intelligence analysis is conducted is connected to the debate as to whether in-, telligence analysis is an art or a science. The model of the assessment situa-. Institutions’ influences on analyses are not exclusively negative; they can be neutral, as well as have a positive impact on assessments. Devil’s Advocacy and the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses are examples of such, alternatives (Davis 2008, 167). Heuer and Pherson write regarding analytical, methods that expert judgment is the traditional way in which most intelligence anal-, ysis is conducted—the combination of critical thinking and subject area expertise, An intelligence officer with decades of experience used an analogy of the musket, and the longbow when explaining his view on the debate (personal correspondence, with the author). The framework for the assessment and analysis is. Johnston has written an. A strategy is created that is meant to broaden the. This is an area that has received a lot of focus within the intelligence literature as it, has often been connected to intelligence failures. 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Yet, it is not proven that structured methods, in fact, improve assessments; it can be argued that it is logical but it has not been tested (Marrin 2016). The result of the revi-, sion was that new methods were set and published in the book, er of the Swedish Armed Forces, General Syrén (Swedish Armed Forces 2009). The model below is in-, spired by Ostrom’s version of Denzau and North’s model of regarding learning and, shared mental models within institutions (see figure 7). Although this is likely to be true on one level, the analyst, does not often begin an analysis with clearly defined theories, as is the case in the, social sciences. This can be a result of external factors (such as deception and denial) or internal, factors that occur in the processing phase when data is transformed into infor-, mation. of the current stimuli. Analysts are also highly dependent on technical. From right to, left: no anchoring, 25% anchoring, and below 35% anchoring. need to collect better quality data if the analyst does not have the time to process it. In the military context, the collection phase is directly, connected to the intelligence-requirement management process. This paper makes three contributions toward addressing these problems. If the argument is followed by a theory based on a definition of intel-, ligence similar to Bimfort’s and what he defines as counter intelligence (i.e., “non-, attributable activities abroad”), there will also be a need to be able to explain ex-, tremely different phenomena. Heuer stated that an analyst’s estima-, tion depends as much on the mental model used as the collected information (Heu-, er 1999, 62). Different models try to compensate for this. ‘Review of Intelligence on Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction’. Participants sometimes used this strategy both implicitly and explicitly. The research design of this thesis has had a sequential structure and can be seen as a, two-step process. The expert analyst is the longbow man; better precision and dis-, tance, but it takes a lifetime to learn and master. Barnes & Noble Classics. 2004. The perception, of the stimuli/rules triggers cognitive bias and limits the available information at any. use, and incoming stimuli. What is seen as a whole depends in other words on what, is studied. In, ———. 0000000960 00000 n ‘Influences on Threat Assessment in a Mili-, Bar-Joseph, Uri, and Rose McDermott. Most research questions regarding intelligence, analysis have a dimension of epistemology. Even if the, foundation is the same, the different holons do not need to have the same priorities, and can emphasize the steps differently. There are two central concepts in this thesis: military intelligence institutions and, intelligence assessments. 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